{"id":3042,"date":"2011-01-28T07:23:50","date_gmt":"2011-01-28T14:23:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=3042"},"modified":"2018-09-21T02:08:21","modified_gmt":"2018-09-21T06:08:21","slug":"fourth-quarter-gdp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2011\/01\/28\/fourth-quarter-gdp\/","title":{"rendered":"Fourth Quarter 2010 U.S. GDP"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">The U.S. Commerce Department reported this morning that gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2010.\u00a0 This result compares to an expected figure of 3.5% growth by a consensus of economists.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Analysis:<\/strong> I consider this result to be positive.\u00a0 In the <a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web2010\/04\/30\/first-quarter-gdp-numbers-are-in\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">first quarter of 2010 GDP<\/a> grew by 3.7% but most of that growth was from businesses investing in inventories in anticipation of consumer demand that just didn&#8217;t materialize.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web2010\/07\/30\/second-quarter-2010-us-gdp\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Second quarter GDP<\/a> reflected that and the economy only expanded 1.7%.\u00a0 In part that quarter was negatively affected by the &#8220;flash crash&#8221; and the unfolding Eurozone debt crisis.\u00a0 Only in <a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web2010\/10\/29\/third-quarter-2010-us-gdp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the third quarter, with GDP growth of 2.6%<\/a>, did the economy seem to be gaining its footing.\u00a0 But that level of growth was too low to excite.\u00a0 <strong>Now<\/strong> we have a real, solid, and most importantly, <em>normal<\/em> GDP number!<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">The breakdown of GDP is: <strong>C<\/strong>onsumer spending + <strong>I<\/strong>nvestment by businesses + <strong>G<\/strong>overnment spending + <strong>X<\/strong>ports, net<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Fourth quarter growth of&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">consumer spending = up 4.4%<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">investment by business = down 3.7%<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">government spending = down 0.2%<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">exports &#8211; imports = up 3.4%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">As you can see the most important number, consumer spending, which makes up 70% of the U.S. economy expanded very robustly in the fourth quarter of 2010.\u00a0 In fact, that result is the strongest since 2006.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Business inventories fell, but this is a good thing.\u00a0 Why?\u00a0 In the third quarter businesses invested billions of dollars into their inventory in anticipation of consumer spending during the holiday season.\u00a0 If consumers had not bought those goods then there would have been a massive overhang of inventory.\u00a0 Then businesses would have had to discount their prices tremendously.\u00a0 That didn&#8217;t happen.\u00a0 The reason is that the U.S. consumer showed up.\u00a0 So a decline in inventories represents a rationalization of the U.S. economy toward a position of greater equilibrium.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Government spending fell, too.\u00a0 I consider this to be a good thing.\u00a0 In classic economic theory in a recession the government is supposed to increase spending to take up the slack from other areas of the economy.\u00a0 But this is unsustainable because it relies upon borrowing by government.\u00a0 That borrowing is exactly the same as trying to extend your economic means as a consumer by using credit cards in slack economic times.\u00a0 Eventually you have to pay it back.\u00a0 So less government spending again means that the economy is becoming more normal.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Net exports up is a shocker.\u00a0 The U.S. has long been a debtor nation on many fronts and one of them is the persistent trade deficit.\u00a0 In the fourth quarter the U.S. actually exported more than it imported.\u00a0 I don&#8217;t feel this is a long-term, sustainable trend, but it represents a nice surprise.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">In conclusion, I like these numbers.\u00a0 They show a strengthening U.S. economy and one that appears to be back on the road toward normalcy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Importance grade:<\/strong> 10; enough said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Jason<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. Commerce Department reported this morning that gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2010.\u00a0 This result compares to an expected figure of 3.5% growth by a consensus of economists. &nbsp; Analysis: I consider this result to be positive.\u00a0 In the first quarter of 2010 GDP grew by 3.7% but [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3042","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3042","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3042"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3042\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3042"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3042"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3042"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}