{"id":3405,"date":"2011-02-02T07:11:13","date_gmt":"2011-02-02T14:11:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=3405"},"modified":"2018-09-21T02:08:16","modified_gmt":"2018-09-21T06:08:16","slug":"an-increasingly-violent-edge-in-egypt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2011\/02\/02\/an-increasingly-violent-edge-in-egypt\/","title":{"rendered":"An increasingly violent edge in Egypt"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Over the weekend I provided a purely intuitive <a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web2011\/01\/30\/what-my-intuition-tells-me-now-egypt\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">assessment of what was going on in Egypt<\/a>.\u00a0 I also said that the situation is in flux because the various participants all have free-will and get to choose how to respond.\u00a0 So here is an update on my evolving intuitive assessment.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Right now in Egypt there is a violent edge developing.\u00a0 To me it feels as if this is primarily driven by a building frustration in all Egyptians that, despite their herculean efforts, they have been unable to accomplish their primary goal: unseating Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak.\u00a0 The frustration is leading to a fracturing of the opposition forces.\u00a0 In turn that fracturing is leading to a mob of people rocketing toward a more visceral, violent response to unfolding events.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In fact, this afternoon in Cairo there are clashes being reported between Mubarak supporters\/instigators and peaceful protesters.\u00a0 Beware of the archetypes, though!\u00a0 It would be easy to imagine a bad guy:good guy scenario here.\u00a0 That is dangerous thinking.\u00a0 What is more important is to tune into the composite energy of the entire country.\u00a0 Unfortunately, the feeling is one of building tension.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>At this point the tension feels to me as if it can only be resolved if Mubarak is forced out of office almost immediately.\u00a0 This job can only be facilitated by the military of Egypt.\u00a0 So my original belief that Mubarak would be forced out by the military looks increasingly likely.\u00a0 What feels less likely is peaceful post-Mubarak moments.\u00a0 I don&#8217;t feel that a countrywide, revolutionary meltdown is what will happen.\u00a0 But it feels like there will be pockets of violent upsurge throughout Egypt in the next 2 to 3 weeks.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Still, I think the <a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web2011\/01\/31\/what-my-intuition-tells-me-now-implications-of-egyptian-revolution\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">implications of the Egyptian revolution<\/a> will be similar to what I described, also this weekend.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>I will continue to monitor this situation very closely.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Jason<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Over the weekend I provided a purely intuitive assessment of what was going on in Egypt.\u00a0 I also said that the situation is in flux because the various participants all have free-will and get to choose how to respond.\u00a0 So here is an update on my evolving intuitive assessment. &nbsp; Right now in Egypt there [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3405","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3405"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3405\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}