{"id":3444,"date":"2011-02-11T10:23:30","date_gmt":"2011-02-11T17:23:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=3444"},"modified":"2018-09-21T02:08:12","modified_gmt":"2018-09-21T06:08:12","slug":"mubarak-resigns-the-presidency-of-egypt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2011\/02\/11\/mubarak-resigns-the-presidency-of-egypt\/","title":{"rendered":"Mubarak resigns the Presidency of egypt"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s embattled “President” has resigned along with other cohorts from the ruling National Democratic Party.\u00a0 This is the end of a very tense situation in the Middle East.\u00a0 I am certain that financial markets around the world will rally on this news.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Now the hard work begins.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The overriding question is: what will the government of Egypt look like next?\u00a0 The most unified and powerful opposition party in Egypt is the Muslim Brotherhood.\u00a0 An organization that has seeded some radical Islamist factions over the course of the 20th and 21st centuries.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

My own personal feeling is that the MB’s power will be ably checked by the largely secular Egyptian military.\u00a0 Additionally, most of the Egyptian people identify themselves as Egyptians first and Muslims second.\u00a0 This primarily national, rather than primarily religious,\u00a0 identity is a rarity in the Middle East.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Almost two weeks ago I used my intuitive process to assess the situation on the ground<\/a>.\u00a0 Recall that at the time it looked like there was going to be armed revolution.\u00a0 Here is what I predicted using an intuitive process, rather than solely an analytical process:<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Order is finally present.\u00a0 While there are still outbreaks of protest on the periphery, the overwhelming majority of Egyptians are now sitting on the sidelines wanting the situation resolved.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. It feels like the order is coming from the military of Egypt.\u00a0 This is not a bad thing.\u00a0 The military is generally a secular institution in Egypt and has been the guarantor of safety since the days of Nasser.<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. The military is not interested in a military dictatorship, but in a society and culture that is stable and that works for most Egyptians.<\/span><\/li>\n
  4. Hosni Mubarak is not in charge in Egypt any longer even though he is yet to resign.\u00a0 To me, his predominate focus is not on re-establishing himself or establishing his son as President.\u00a0 Instead, it feels as if he is making arrangements to leave Egypt.<\/span><\/li>\n
  5. It feels as if his departure will happen before Wednesday.\u00a0 Depending on the situation on the Street the military will begin meeting with political forces to craft the future of Egypt.<\/span><\/li>\n
  6. Post this revolution Egypt will be a more democratic, stronger nation and a nation that will assert itself more regionally in a primarily cultural values way.<\/span><\/li>\n
  7. It won\u2019t be until mid-Spring that the new Egypt begins to root itself.\u00a0 In the meantime there will be tremendous anxiousness on the part of Egyptians.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

     <\/p>\n

    How’d I do?\u00a0 In my own honest assessment I was completely spot on.\u00a0 The only thing I got wrong was the number of days until Mubarak would resign and I was off by only several days.\u00a0 In other words, in the midst of what seemed to be an increasingly combustible situation, I felt that the situation would calm down and a peaceful resolution would be found.\u00a0 So my qualitative assessment was spot on – even if the quantitative assessment was slightly off.<\/span><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Several weeks ago most pundits said that Mubarak would only leave after violent revolution and that he might win in such a confrontation.\u00a0 Compare the uncertainty of those standard assessments with that of an intuitive process well applied.\u00a0 Folks, this is the power of intuition at work!\u00a0 It helps you to truly tune into uncertain situations to make very accurate assessments.<\/span><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    As I said above, now the hard work begins.\u00a0 Once the ecstasy permeating the Egyptian opposition settles they will realize that the primary thing that united them, Hosni Mubarak, is no longer acting as an attractor point.\u00a0 Now they, along with the military, need to figure out the future of Egypt.\u00a0 Expect more updates to come.<\/span><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Jason<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s embattled “President” has resigned along with other cohorts from the ruling National Democratic Party.\u00a0 This is the end of a very tense situation in the Middle East.\u00a0 I am certain that financial markets around the world will rally on this news.   Now the hard work begins.   The overriding question is: […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3444","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3444","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3444"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3444\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3444"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3444"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3444"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}