{"id":3822,"date":"2011-03-18T10:42:08","date_gmt":"2011-03-18T16:42:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=3822"},"modified":"2018-09-21T02:07:54","modified_gmt":"2018-09-21T06:07:54","slug":"japanese-intuitive-assessment-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2011\/03\/18\/japanese-intuitive-assessment-update\/","title":{"rendered":"Japanese Intuitive Assessment Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">On 13 March, 2011 I published an <a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web2011\/03\/13\/what-my-intuition-tells-me-now-intuitive-assessment-of-japanese-disaster\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Intuitive Assessment of Japanese Disaster<\/a>.\u00a0 An update to that assessment is necessary because the events taking place there are in movement.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>WHAT I GOT RIGHT<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">I initially sensed a growing sense of disorder.\u00a0 I am happy to report that my feeling is that folks in Japan are coalescing in a more unified way.\u00a0 The palpable sense of disarray, disorder and increasing chaos has now stabilized.\u00a0 Plans are finally being put in place to recover from the disaster.\u00a0 Initially I reported that the military and political structures in Japan were exceptions.\u00a0 I feel that the military&#8217;s role is declining as everyday citizens of Japan make choices to move forward from this overwhelming disaster.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">I said that I felt that the disaster as of 13 March, 2011 had the potential to get worse before it got better even though the earthquake and subsequent tsunami had already happened.\u00a0 I am certain that you would agree with me that the situation got much worse, especially in consideration of the nuclear power plant crisis.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">In the intuitive assessment I also said: &#8220;It feels as if to me that the second nuclear power plants that is in jeopardy of experiencing a meltdown will not suffer that fate.&#8221;\u00a0 I was spot on in this assessment.\u00a0 The only plant remaining in crisis is the Fukushima Daichi plant, while the Fukushima Daini plant has been contained.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">I also said that: &#8220;Unfortunately, the plant that has melted down is going to cause serious loss of human life through radiation poisoning.\u00a0 I would expect this number to be in the low thousands.&#8221;\u00a0 It is too early to tell what the ultimate loss of human life will be from the Daichi plant as radiation poisoning affects the human body insidiously.\u00a0 I can say that I admire the courage of the workers who are trying so hard to stabilize the Daichi plant.\u00a0 I sincerely hope that they are protected and are ultimately unharmed by their heroic efforts.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">In the assessment I stated that the Japanese disaster was unlikely to result in a double-dip recession for the global economy.\u00a0 Because the Japanese nuclear crisis is still not contained it is too early to tell what the ultimate effect will be on the global economy.\u00a0 However, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/2011-03-18\/japan-s-9-piece-of-global-gdp-means-world-expansion-won-t-become-unhinged.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">many investment and economic pundits now agree with my initial and early assessment of the Japan disaster<\/a>.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">I predicted that commodities prices would rise because of the disaster and that is exactly what has occurred.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">I stated that I expected financial markets would fall between 2-5% and recommended buying on any dips that took markets below 2%.\u00a0 On Monday, 14 March, 2011 the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened at a level of 12,042.12 and fell to a low of 11,548.14 on 16 March, 2011.\u00a0 That represents a decline of 4.1% in the DJIA.\u00a0 So the intuitive assessment of the decline exceeding 2% was correct.\u00a0 The assessment was also correct that the decline would be less than 5%.\u00a0 Had you bought when the market had declined by 2%, a DJIA level of 11,801.3, you would have made about 1% as of 10:24am MDT on 18 March, 2011.\u00a0 In other words, the market seems to have bottomed with regard to the Japan crisis when it hit 11,548.14 on 16 March, 2011 and is now in recovery mode.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">I named the nuclear crisis as a key element to focus on saying, &#8220;The outcome of Japanese efforts to contain the fallout from these two nuclear crises is more important right now than the recovery from the tsunami.&#8221;\u00a0 I think that you would agree with me that turned out to be true and at an early stage of the crisis &#8211; about 48 hours after the initial earthquake and resultant tsunami; we are now fully one week past those events.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">I also encouraged readers to not become myopic and focus too much on Japan, instead suggesting that they also focus on what was happening in the Middle East.\u00a0 Specifically I pointed out Iran as a deserving investor attention.\u00a0 During the past week it is believed that Iran did in fact try and escalate the crisis be egging on the protesters in Bahrain.\u00a0 So this portion of the assessment was also accurate.\u00a0 However, the Saudis responded by sending in troops of the Gulf Cooperation Council to shutdown the protests.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">WHAT I GOT WRONG<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">As of the writing of this piece it looks as if the number of dead I predicted from the nuclear disaster will prove to be too high.\u00a0 Other than that, my intuitive assessment, delivered just as news about the nuclear disaster was unfolding, was spot on.\u00a0 Additionally, I think that you would agree with me that the Japanese government was not forthcoming with information about its various crises.\u00a0 So how could you make choices based solely on the reported news?<\/span><\/li>\n<li><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Folks, this is why, as an investor, I believe so strongly in intuition.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">I will continue to monitor this very volatile, and still potentially dangerous, situation and report anything that I find.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Jason<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On 13 March, 2011 I published an Intuitive Assessment of Japanese Disaster.\u00a0 An update to that assessment is necessary because the events taking place there are in movement. &nbsp; WHAT I GOT RIGHT &nbsp; I initially sensed a growing sense of disorder.\u00a0 I am happy to report that my feeling is that folks in Japan [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3,16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3822","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog","category-intuitive-assessments"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3822","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3822"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3822\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3822"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3822"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3822"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}