{"id":3881,"date":"2011-03-26T10:29:18","date_gmt":"2011-03-26T16:29:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=3881"},"modified":"2018-09-21T02:07:48","modified_gmt":"2018-09-21T06:07:48","slug":"middle-east-unrest-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2011\/03\/26\/middle-east-unrest-update\/","title":{"rendered":"Middle East Unrest Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Back in February I published an <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web2011\/02\/22\/what-my-intuition-tells-me-now-intuitive-assessment-of-middle-east-unrest\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">intuitive assessment of the Middle East unrest<\/a><\/span> that has been a fairly accurate rendition of the events that have unfolded throughout the troubled region.\u00a0 As effective as intuition is at providing insight into moments where facts are not forthcoming, or absent altogether, it is just a snapshot of a moment in time.\u00a0 So intuitive assessments have to be updated and they must incorporate new facts as they appear.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Here is a factual run down of what is happening in some of the Middle Easts hotter spots, my quantitative assessment of intensity, and my intuitive assessment update:<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Bahrain<\/strong> (7) &#8211; Gulf Cooperation Council troops remain in the small country.\u00a0 The &#8220;state of emergency&#8221; and its rules remain in force.\u00a0 Intense protests have subsided and have been replaced by opposition numbering in the hundreds, not the thousands.\u00a0 It is highly unlikely that GCC troops will be exiting Bahrain any time soon.\u00a0 To me it feels as if the country is still very, very tense and that they could escalate if either side dares to blink and lose the staring contest.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Jordan<\/strong> (3) &#8211; Once calm with consistent, but respectful protests, Jordan has become more tense over the last several days.\u00a0 What has happened is that a cabal of students are wanting to erect a tent city in the heart of the capital, Amman.\u00a0 Students are also refusing to leave unless their demands are met.\u00a0 Their most onerous request is that the Jordanian parliament be dissolved.\u00a0 However, the students are not wanting to oust King Abdullah II.\u00a0 To me it feels as if Jordan is far, far away from an escalation of protests.\u00a0 The country is also not about to witness an outbreak of violence.\u00a0 However, the students do feel very serious in their peaceful intent to have their demands met.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Syria<\/strong> (6) &#8211; Damascus, the capital, is not the scene of the most intense protests.\u00a0 Instead the southwestern city of Daraa has seen tens of thousands of protesters continue to want radical change of the Syrian power elite.\u00a0 These protesters, unlike those in Bahrain, have continued to grow in number despite having been shot at and some of their number actually being killed.\u00a0 President Assad has directly ordered police and military forces to back away from the protesters and has forbidden the use of live ammunition in an effort to take the edge off of the situation.\u00a0 Additionally, protest movements are breaking out all around Syria.\u00a0 Protester deaths have occurred in many locations and security forces are having a difficult time containing the situation.\u00a0 However, to me it feels as if the protesters in Syria, despite the security force violence, are very strongly aligned.\u00a0 I would compare it to the force of will of African Americans in the United States during the civil rights movement.\u00a0 It feels as if to me that Syria is going to look radically different in 6 months than it does today.\u00a0 It also feels as if President Assad may end up ceding power at some point.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Yemen<\/strong> (5) &#8211; Recall that Yemen saw a very important general defect to the opposition last week.\u00a0 Effectively this has created the seeds for a potential civil war unless the two opposing sides are willing to negotiate a settlement.\u00a0 To that end, the Saudis are acting as mediators between the two sides and for now the situation in Yemen is calm.\u00a0 However, those seeking regime change do not feel to me as if they are willing to go back to &#8220;business as usual&#8221; if the negotiations should fail.\u00a0 The good news is that President Saleh feels to me as if he is willing to surrender power and walk away peacefully.\u00a0 The question is what will the government look like afterward?\u00a0 Stratfor, my favorite source for geopolitical news, is reporting a very fractious opposition movement.\u00a0 In short, nobody seems able to agree on what Yemen looks like next.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">I will continue to keep you apprised of important shifts in the Middle East.\u00a0 Because of oil, this region is the most important economic region on the planet.\u00a0 As investors, we really do have to understand and appreciate what is going on here.\u00a0 I continue to feel as if the movement toward democratization in the Middle East is a net good for the entire planet in the long run, even if the societies that emerge are less secular than those currently in place.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Jason<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Back in February I published an intuitive assessment of the Middle East unrest that has been a fairly accurate rendition of the events that have unfolded throughout the troubled region.\u00a0 As effective as intuition is at providing insight into moments where facts are not forthcoming, or absent altogether, it is just a snapshot of a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3881","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3881","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3881"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3881\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3881"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3881"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3881"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}