{"id":3931,"date":"2011-03-31T08:21:29","date_gmt":"2011-03-31T14:21:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=3931"},"modified":"2018-09-21T02:07:45","modified_gmt":"2018-09-21T06:07:45","slug":"unemployment-claims-down-slightly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2011\/03\/31\/unemployment-claims-down-slightly\/","title":{"rendered":"Unemployment Claims Down Slightly"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Department of Labor data show that weekly jobless claims fell by 6,000 last week to a level of 388,000.\u00a0 These data are notoriously volatile so the four-week moving average is a more reliable number and was up 3,250 to 394,250.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Analysis:<\/strong> Both of the above figures are well within the realm of a statistical error and future revisions to the data may swing 180 degrees from these results.\u00a0 Embedded in that story though is the fact that jobless claims are holding steady and to such a degree that it is hard to tell which direction they are moving: up or down.\u00a0 In conjunction with other data that suggest businesses are finally starting to hire, this means that the unemployment rate has to finally be improving.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Overall weekly jobless claims are below the important break point of 400,000.\u00a0 Why is this important?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">An economy needs to create jobs every month just to keep up with population growth.\u00a0 Then there are all of the jobs that need to be created to replace the jobs lost during the Great Recession.\u00a0 Jobless claims above 400,000 are an indication that the economy is not creating enough jobs to overcome these two thresholds and means that the unemployment rate is likely getting worse.\u00a0 Below 400,000 &#8211; as we have had now for many weeks &#8211; means that the economy is creating jobs fast enough to lower the unemployment rate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">I am certain that first quarter gross domestic product growth is going to be good, if not very good.\u00a0 That, coupled with robust corporate profit growth, should result in an increase in business confidence.\u00a0 So I am anticipating a more rapid improvement in the unemployment rate in the second quarter.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Importance grade:<\/strong> 4; this one number in isolation is largely meaningless.\u00a0 However, I continue to track the trend because until unemployment is in the 7-8% range, or even better yet, around 7%, it will be hard to say that the hangover effects of the Great Recession are behind us.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Jason<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Department of Labor data show that weekly jobless claims fell by 6,000 last week to a level of 388,000.\u00a0 These data are notoriously volatile so the four-week moving average is a more reliable number and was up 3,250 to 394,250. &nbsp; Analysis: Both of the above figures are well within the realm of a statistical [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3931","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3931","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3931"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3931\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3931"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3931"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3931"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}