{"id":4165,"date":"2011-05-03T20:26:29","date_gmt":"2011-05-04T02:26:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=4165"},"modified":"2018-09-21T02:06:48","modified_gmt":"2018-09-21T06:06:48","slug":"anecdotal-evidence-of-a-stock-market-fairly-valued","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2011\/05\/03\/anecdotal-evidence-of-a-stock-market-fairly-valued\/","title":{"rendered":"Anecdotal Evidence of a Stock Market Fairly Valued"},"content":{"rendered":"

My regular readers might have noticed that I have not posted about the financial markets much in the last 10 days or so.\u00a0 My goal is to interpret the mass of news flow out there and deliver to you prescient analysis and commentary on the important news story of the day.\u00a0 That<\/em> story is something that I feel affects investors and is worth trying to understand.\u00a0 Yet, there has been not much to write about.<\/span><\/p>\n

There have been no big earnings misses, other than Research In Motion (RIMM) earnings miss and big sell off<\/a>, and I blogged about that.\u00a0 Geopolitical events, even including the death of Osama bin Laden just don’t mean that much<\/a>.\u00a0 Meanwhile the stock market continues to go sideways.\u00a0 So what does this all mean?\u00a0 As you have probably guessed from the title of the post this is anecdotal evidence of a stock market that is fairly valued.<\/span><\/p>\n

There are two things to focus on.<\/span><\/p>\n

First, is the stock market responding to news appropriately?\u00a0 That is: are there wild gyrations up or down on news?\u00a0 No.\u00a0 That usually means that the news flow is not providing anything untoward or unexpected.\u00a0 That means that stock prices already reflect the type of news that is coursing through our attention spans.<\/span><\/p>\n

Second, is there a general sense and feeling of apathy?\u00a0 That is: are investors nonplussed by things like earnings reports?\u00a0 Yes.<\/span><\/p>\n

To me, this is a powerful sign that the stock market is currently fairly valued.\u00a0 Not coincidentally, I said earlier this year for the first time in my career that I felt that the stock market was fairly valued and that stock investors would do well to invest in a U.S. index mutual fund<\/a> <gasp!>.\u00a0 Trust me, I have been published as an investor and writer denigrating index funds – so for me, this is shocking.<\/span><\/p>\n

What to do?\u00a0 Start looking for asset classes that might be undervalued.\u00a0 All investing boils down to four simple words: buy low, sell high.\u00a0 What is low right now?\u00a0 That’s right, real estate is very cheap.\u00a0 What isn’t low right now?\u00a0 That’s right, commodities, including oil, silver and gold – which is very overvalued<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Might real estate prices go lower?\u00a0 Yes, and they probably will.\u00a0 But to be able to buy real estate here, you are likely buying at, or very near, the low.<\/span><\/p>\n

I will continue to apprise you of anything that I feel is significant in the news flow.\u00a0 But right now, what is significant is that there is nothing of significance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jason<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

My regular readers might have noticed that I have not posted about the financial markets much in the last 10 days or so.\u00a0 My goal is to interpret the mass of news flow out there and deliver to you prescient analysis and commentary on the important news story of the day.\u00a0 That story is something […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4165","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4165"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4165\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4165"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4165"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4165"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}