Jobless claims creeped up a whopping 43,000 last week to a total of 474,000 last week according to U.S. Department of Labor data.\u00a0 This is the highest level of jobless claims since August, 2010.\u00a0 Because the data can frequently be volatile folks generally look at the four week moving average.\u00a0 That figure rose by 22,250 to 431,250.\u00a0 Furthermore, today’s results exceeded economist’s expectations considerably.<\/p>\n
Analysis:<\/strong> Importantly, the Department of Labor attached several caveats to this morning’s jobless claims figure that they feel account for the surge in jobless claims.\u00a0 Most of the one-time factors had to do with the timing of certain state\u00a0 governmental quirks around the country and a slight increase within the auto industry.\u00a0 While this may be comforting, it is also not encouraging.<\/p>\n Ideally the economy is robust enough that it overcomes minor one-time factors to create jobs.\u00a0 Currently, that is not happening.\u00a0 So while the U.S. consumer continues to do his\/her part – spending money, saving money, and looking for work – U.S. businesses continue to be chintzy in their hiring.<\/p>\n Eventually the lack of hiring will only shoot businesses in the foot.\u00a0 Consumers need to be confident enough to spend money.\u00a0 If they are worried about their jobs and their finances then they save money, rather than spend it.\u00a0 Duh.\u00a0 Right now it appears to me that many businesses are being penny wise and pound foolish.\u00a0 Ultimately, what is at stake is the strength of gross domestic product (GDP) growth.<\/p>\n It is unclear whether we are seeing a permanent shift in the way U.S. businesses hire, or not.\u00a0 I will continue to monitor this situation very closely, because frankly, companies ought to be hiring.\u00a0 Revenues are up and expenses are very low.\u00a0 Eventually there will be enough sales that new hiring will have to take place to relieve the pressure on over taxed employees.<\/p>\n I am not distressed enough to change my opinion of U.S. stock markets: that a rising tide of around 10% returns will lift nearly all boats.\u00a0 However, expect to see me continue to emphasize jobless claims data on the blog until we see an improvement in them.<\/p>\n Importance grade:<\/strong> 8; at the moment I will take the one-time factors the Department of Labor mentioned in today’s release at face value.\u00a0 However, I consider jobless claims data to be on probation until there is a significant improvement in the next month.<\/p>\n Jason<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Jobless claims creeped up a whopping 43,000 last week to a total of 474,000 last week according to U.S. Department of Labor data.\u00a0 This is the highest level of jobless claims since August, 2010.\u00a0 Because the data can frequently be volatile folks generally look at the four week moving average.\u00a0 That figure rose by 22,250 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4173","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4173","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4173"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4173\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4173"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4173"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4173"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}