{"id":430,"date":"2010-05-31T09:19:00","date_gmt":"2010-05-31T13:19:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.intuitiveinvestor.com\/web\/?p=430"},"modified":"2018-08-18T17:54:46","modified_gmt":"2018-08-18T21:54:46","slug":"raid-by-israel-on-turkish-aid-convoy-to-the-gaza-strip","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2010\/05\/31\/raid-by-israel-on-turkish-aid-convoy-to-the-gaza-strip\/","title":{"rendered":"Raid by Israel on Turkish aid convoy to the Gaza Strip"},"content":{"rendered":"

During the night of May 31 Israel Defense Force (IDF<\/span>) commandos raided a Turkish aid convoy bound for the Gaza Strip in the Palestinian occupied territories.\u00a0 Initially it was reported that 10 of the passengers on the convoy were killed by the IDF<\/span>, then that number was escalated to 16, and the latest information I saw says only 10 were killed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Reportedly Israel first contacted the aid convoy via radio with instructions directing the convoy to the naval port of Ashdod<\/span>.\u00a0 The flotilla refused to comply.\u00a0 Israeli commandos then boarded the lead ship.\u00a0 What happened next is not known exactly as the two sides are reporting different outcomes.\u00a0 The IDF<\/span> has said that it met with resistance in the form of passengers throwing rocks and using knives to try and stab IDF<\/span> soldiers.\u00a0 Meanwhile, Turkish convoy passengers have denied that fact.\u00a0 In support of the IDF<\/span> is news coverage showing that one of its soldiers was stabbed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fascinatingly, literally within moments of the tense incident unfolding there were Palestinian commentators on Al Jazeera<\/span> condemning the Israeli actions.\u00a0 I have been tracking the flotilla’s progress over the last week after it had been announced by Turkey.\u00a0 It is clear that the incident was carefully orchestrated by Turkey.\u00a0 But for what purpose?<\/span><\/p>\n

Turkey over the last several years has been trying to re-establish itself as the leading Islamic power.\u00a0 This is why it has taken on the role of Iranian nuclear plant\u00a0negotiator along with Brasil<\/span> and as convoy aid provider to the Gaza Strip.\u00a0 In other words, Turkey is trying to increase its profile by pressuring Israel.\u00a0 The track of the convoy was carefully put in place to force Israel into a course of near predictable action.\u00a0 In its history\u00a0Israel has never backed down when the sovereignty of its nation has been\u00a0challenged.\u00a0 So this outcome was somewhat known ahead of time.\u00a0 Yet, Turkey knowingly persisted.\u00a0\u00a0It is unclear what Turkey’s next step will be.\u00a0 Will it follow through with its suggestion of military escorts for future flotillas?\u00a0 Will it back down?\u00a0 At this point the response is unknown.\u00a0 Also unknown will be the response of the United States.<\/span><\/p>\n

The U.S. is trying to withdraw forces in Iraq in August per Obama’s<\/span> campaign promise.\u00a0 Unfortunately, the U.S. has been hoping that Turkey, in fulfillment of its regional hegemon<\/span> ambitions, would help fill the regional power void left by an Iraqi withdrawal of troops.\u00a0 Will the U.S. still trust Turkey to do this without further complicating the region’s politics?\u00a0 Will the U.S. back Israel or Turkey in the incident?\u00a0 All of this is unknown at this point.\u00a0 I will track the course of the story closely.<\/span><\/p>\n

What is known is that financial markets are not<\/strong> going to like another Middle Eastern conflagrat<\/span>ion.\u00a0 Will the IDF<\/span> convoy raid escalate from incident to full on Middle Eastern conflict?\u00a0 It’s unknown at this point.\u00a0 At the moment of this blog posting most financial markets around the world are up.\u00a0 As you know U.S. financial markets are closed today because of the Memorial Day holiday.<\/span><\/p>\n

Analysis:<\/strong> It’s my feeling that the short-term financial market response to escalating tensions in the Middle East will be sideways to down.\u00a0 This is because investors do not like uncertainty.\u00a0 It is highly unlikely that Turkey will continue to up the pressure on Israel resulting in actual warfare.\u00a0 Instead, Turkey is trying to position itself as the “go-to” nation for Muslim issues.\u00a0 In my opinion, once<\/span> Turkey feels that it has earned its street cred, it will dial back the pressure.\u00a0 Medium-term, a stronger Turkey will probably serve to make the Middle East more stable as the balance of power becomes more balanced.\u00a0 Put bluntly, a strong Turkey is\u00a0a weakened Iran.\u00a0 This should result in better financial markets performance vis<\/span>-a-vis<\/span> Middle Eastern entanglements.<\/span><\/p>\n

Importance grade:<\/strong> 9; the international political arena is witnessing a gladiatorial contest between international powers Turkey and Israel.\u00a0 This is unnerving.\u00a0 However, my feeling is that the real story of the convoy incident is Turkey’s exertion of renewed confidence and power.\u00a0 Long-term I feel this is a good thing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jason<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

During the night of May 31 Israel Defense Force (IDF) commandos raided a Turkish aid convoy bound for the Gaza Strip in the Palestinian occupied territories.\u00a0 Initially it was reported that 10 of the passengers on the convoy were killed by the IDF, then that number was escalated to 16, and the latest information I […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/430","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=430"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/430\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=430"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=430"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=430"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}