{"id":4457,"date":"2011-07-01T06:49:17","date_gmt":"2011-07-01T12:49:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=4457"},"modified":"2018-09-21T02:05:46","modified_gmt":"2018-09-21T06:05:46","slug":"2011-predictions-half-year-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2011\/07\/01\/2011-predictions-half-year-update\/","title":{"rendered":"2011 Predictions Half Year Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Today marks the end of the first half of 2011, so it is time to return to my 2011 Predictions to see how I have done so far this year.\u00a0 For ease in evaluation I will re-post each prediction in its entirety, followed by evaluation and commentary.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>OVERALL THEMES<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Cohesion &#8211; The economies of the world will finally start to move more in lock step than they have since the Great Recession ensued.\u00a0 Until now some economies have emerged from the recession growing more quickly than others.\u00a0 While others have been laggards.\u00a0 2011 will witness a return to more even, more cohesive economic growth.\u00a0\u00a0 That is, the &#8220;system&#8221; will be operating in a more unified, healthier and more robust fashion.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 This has largely been borne out by the statistics of the world&#8217;s major economies.\u00a0 With the exception of the United Kingdom, the top 20 economies in the world, that account for fully five sixths of total worldwide gross domestic product (GDP), have grown.\u00a0 This is a marked improvement from 2010.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: A<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Stabilization &#8211; Nervousness has been present in the economic body for the preceding three years.\u00a0 Anxiety will begin to depart the emotional make up of business owners, workers, consumers and politicians.\u00a0 In other words, the system will stabilize as trust replaces hope.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 So far this has largely not come to pass in the United States, though the European economy seems to be experiencing a diminished sense of nervousness.\u00a0 Meanwhile, anxiety is certainly much higher in Japan, largely having to do with the massive earthquake and the resulting tsunami and nuclear crisis.\u00a0 China continues its march toward an economic bubble, but the Chinese themselves seem to be more giddy.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: C<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Back to the Future &#8211;\u00a0Greater cohesion and stabilization\u00a0will result in a rhetoric and an imagining on the part of individuals with\u00a0an emphasis on the future.\u00a0 Folks have been focused on the immediate present in an unhealthy way.\u00a0 That has led to short-term decisions whose consequences are not fully understood.\u00a0 An analogy would be when you first get a severe cut on your body.\u00a0 Your attention is focused entirely on how to stop the bleeding.\u00a0 Then your attention shifts to how to stop the pain.\u00a0 Then your attention shifts to what the long-term ramifications are to your body &#8211; this is the stage we are entering in my opinion.\u00a0 Ultimately, the injury creates a scar that serves as a reminder of what went wrong, but the focus returns to the future.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 With a massive political crisis in the Middle East, an environmental and economic crisis in Japan, the Greek debt crisis, and the U.S. debt crisis all rearing their heads in the first half of 2011 it would be hard to say that folks have switched from a conscious focus from their immediate situation.\u00a0 When these various crises have not been raging there has been an emphasis on more long-term issues.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: D<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Economy<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">U.S.<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Stock\u00a0markets &#8211; I feel that they are going to be up\u00a0between 10-14%.\u00a0 This is because my feeling is that businesses will start to be able to grow their revenues in a meaningful way for the first time in almost three years.\u00a0 In turn, that will lead to an improvement in the unemployment situation.\u00a0 In general, investors will begin to focus on business issues and much less on economic issues as the economy is trusted again.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation: So far this year the S&amp;P 500 is up exactly 5.0%, that compares to a half year prediction of up 5-7%.\u00a0 So I did alright there and businesses are, in fact growing their revenues in meaningful ways.\u00a0 However, that has not led to an improvement in job creation or a reduction in the unemployment rate.\u00a0 Furthermore, the various macro level crises that have plagued investors this year have meant that there has been a predominate emphasis on non-business specific issues.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: C<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Federal Reserve (monetary policy) &#8211; The Fed will continue to be impotent quantitatively having pulled all of their policy levers already.\u00a0\u00a0Instead, the power of the Federal Reserve\u00a0will be qualitative.\u00a0\u00a0In other words, what\u00a0they feel is happening in (i.e. their commentary and opinions about)\u00a0the world economy will be more important than any specific action that they\u00a0will make.\u00a0 They are also likely to leave interest rates flat for all of 2011.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 This prediction has been pretty much spot on.\u00a0 In fact, the Federal Reserve has announced in the last several weeks that it will end its Quantitative Easing (i.e. printing money) stimulus of the economy.\u00a0 Simultaneously, the Fed has acknowledged the weakness of the economy.\u00a0 These two facts taken together are an indication that the Fed recognizes that it doesn&#8217;t have the power to resuscitate the economy.\u00a0 Additionally, I have called into question some of the Fed&#8217;s statements which, to me, look like attempts of &#8220;talking up&#8221; the U.S. economy.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: A<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Congress (fiscal policy) &#8211; Will be gridlocked\u00a0and unable to make\u00a0any substantive changes.\u00a0 There will be movement on taxation and pro-business type issues.\u00a0 In particular, look for an extension of the Bush-era taxation environment.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation: This has largely come to fruition.\u00a0 In fact, it is rumored that the U.S. debt crisis is getting hung up on the Republican party&#8217;s reluctance to not extend Bush-era tax cuts.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: A<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">U.S. dollar &#8211; Despite the desire of the Federal Reserve to weaken the U.S. dollar, it will likely strengthen as the economy strengthens.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation: The U.S. dollar has weakened almost 7% relative to the Euro &#8211; its chief currency competitor.\u00a0 Against the Chinese yuan it has fallen 1.8%.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: F<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Economy, in general<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Gross Domestic Product &#8211; There will be\u00a0no double-dip recession.\u00a0 Instead GDP will likely grow around\u00a04%.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 There clearly has not been a double-dip recession, which was a fear permeating the economic consciousness in late 2010.\u00a0 GDP has so far grown %, clearly this is below my estimate.\u00a0 While less than expected, I predicted the trend&#8217;s direction correctly.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: C<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Consumers &#8211; The improvement in hiring (see below) will see a much improved consumer mood.\u00a0 So the consumer will start to increase\u00a0her\/his spending relative to income.\u00a0 This will lower the savings rate.\u00a0 I would expect by the end of 2011 that spending levels and personal income levels will be roughly equal.\u00a0 Meaning that consumers are spending what they earn.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation: Hiring has not materialized, so not surprisingly consumers have not increased their spending much.\u00a0 Instead their spending is only tracking slightly ahead of where it was last year.\u00a0 But consumers have increased their spending relative to savings.\u00a0 Lastly, my prediction that consumers would spend additional dollars, rather than save them has been borne out.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: B<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Businesses &#8211; Will finally start to see modest revenue growth.\u00a0 In the aggregate this will be 5-9%.\u00a0 Because of the bare bones expense structure of businesses, this will result in a POP! in earnings.\u00a0 In turn, businesses will begin to hire again.\u00a0 I would expect that the unemployment rate exits 2011\u00a0in the 7.8-8.7% range.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 Right now the unemployment rate is 9.1% and is largely unchanged from where it was in December 2010 &#8211; the moment of my predictions.\u00a0 Yet, revenues for the S&amp;P 500 are up for the year.\u00a0 In fact, the increase has led to analysts upping their full year sales growth rates for the S&amp;P 500 to up 10%.\u00a0 This is a doubling of the previous consensus.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: B<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">outside of\u00a0the U.S<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Europe &#8211; The debt storm that is passing through Europe right now (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and\u00a0Spain)\u00a0will subside with not much consequence in terms of the economy.\u00a0 Instead, the predominant result will be political (see comments on Germany below).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 Clearly we are still in the middle of the Greek debt crisis.\u00a0 However, the crises of Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain have largely dropped from investor consciousness.\u00a0 The impact here was largely psychological and not economic.\u00a0 Also, with the Greek parliament agreeing to additional austerity measures, the Greek crisis will likely pass, too.\u00a0 So again, the damage was largely psychological, not economic.\u00a0 It&#8217;s important to remember that at the end of 2010 many pundits were forecasting a double-dip recession due to the escalating European debt crises.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: A<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">China &#8211; The Chinese are on the brink of two ugly things: massive asset inflation and the bursting of that bubble, and social unrest.\u00a0 Expect to see social protests in China as the haves and have nots gap widens.\u00a0 In typical authoritarian fashion though, the protests will be convincingly squelched.\u00a0 Expect to hear, if not see the true, dark underbelly of China.\u00a0 I would also expect a conflict with the U.S. over its currency, the Yuan.\u00a0 The U.S. (see below), in the form of Barack Obama, will pressure China on its currency.\u00a0\u00a0The Chinese will fight back to increase the fervor of nationalism there\u00a0to distract from their own internal economic problems.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation: Social protests in China are indeed spreading and they have to do with growing economic disparity.\u00a0 Those protests have, in fact, been squelched violently.\u00a0 A conflict between the U.S. and China over currency has not yet happened.\u00a0 However, I still feel that as the presidential election cycle nears that the Obama campaign will still bash China.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: B<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Japan &#8211; Will continue to be an economic\u00a0zombie.\u00a0 Expect very little change out of Japan as its inexperienced new government struggles to deal with a set of problems that are a generation old.\u00a0 For example, an economy that has gone sideways since the early 1990s!<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 Throw in the after effects of the massive earthquake and the above forecast looks even more potent.\u00a0 However, I missed the forthcoming earthquake &#8211; hopefully you will forgive me for that oversight.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: B<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">India &#8211; Will begin courting the United States to increase business and trade ties.\u00a0 The underlying goal is to begin to isolate its nemesis, Pakistan.\u00a0 Look for grand, friendly\u00a0gestures, that are ultimately hollow, as the flirtation is explored.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 This has happened to a very small degree.\u00a0 The U.S. has flirted with improving trade ties with India as a way of making the Pakistanis nervous.\u00a0 However, as of this writing, the above described prediction has not happened.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: C<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Brazil &#8211; Will continue to try and coordinate their economy\u00a0with their\u00a0geopolitics awkwardly.\u00a0 Ultimately, for Brazil to attain &#8220;world power&#8221; status, the government and business world must work together to establish Brazil on the world stage.\u00a0 So far, Brazil has done this without consistency.\u00a0 This leads to suspicion and reluctance on the part of other nations to deal with Brazil.\u00a0 Expect more of the same improvement in its economy, with uncertain messages from its politicians.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 One of this year&#8217;s surprises is the election of a new president in Brazil who seems to be trying to rectify the very situation I describe above.\u00a0 It is far too early to tell if she will succeed in her efforts.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: C<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Geopolitics<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">U.S.<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Barack Obama (Executive branch) &#8211; In order to re-establish the Democratic party and to help his re-election chances, Barack Obama will focus on foreign policy as he cannot move a gridlocked Congress.\u00a0 There will be a pull-out from Afghanistan where there will be some tenuous political, rather than military,\u00a0settlement.\u00a0 He will talk about his kept promise to pull troops out of Iraq.\u00a0 Obama may also focus on trade issues. But most of all, he will begin battering China on a whole host of economic and trade issues.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 I was correct that Barack Obama would shift his focus from domestic to foreign policy.\u00a0 He has in fact notified the world of his intention to draw down forces in Afghanistan.\u00a0 Additionally, his administration has been talking with the Taliban of Afghanistan in order to reach a political, rather than military, settlement.\u00a0 Iraq still appears to be on schedule.\u00a0 But the battering of China which seemed to be gaining steam in October and November of 2010 lost steam.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: B<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Congress (Legislative branch) &#8211; Will largely be gridlocked.\u00a0 Watch a fascinating fencing match as the Republicans and Democrats fight to paint the other as the source of the obstruction preventing &#8220;real&#8221; change from happening.\u00a0 The only movement will be on freebies for the American public and business community, such as a continuance of the Bush-era tax cuts\/debt increases and press-friendly economic incentives for businesses.\u00a0 In other words, the same as it always has been.\u00a0 Result: an increase, rather than a decrease in the debt levels of the U.S.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 This is pretty much a spot on prediction.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: A<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Europe<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Germany is feeling out its mojo for the first time since World War II.\u00a0 They will continue to use the economic crises in europe as the\u00a0justification for their meddling in other european nation&#8217;s affairs.\u00a0 Expect Germany to warm\u00a0to Russia and to talk about the need for NATO to evolve to fit a more modern world.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 This has come to pass as true.\u00a0 However, Germany has been a bit more introspective than I had expected.\u00a0 So the focus on dominating the EU has not quite been what I had expected.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: B<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">France will experience an existential crisis as its nearly 50-year vision for Europe starts to unravel because of an emboldened Germany.\u00a0 The French are likely to warm to the United States and look for meaningful ways to strengthen its relationship with the U.S.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 The French are indeed warming to the United States, even asking for U.S. assistance in Libya, where the French could not coax the Germans into participating.\u00a0 Additionally, the French have clashed with Germany over its growing coziness with Russia.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: A<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">China &#8211; See above.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Japan &#8211; The new and partially naive government will be unable to change the economic reality.\u00a0 So look for them to follow Obama&#8217;s strategy of emphasizing foreign policy.\u00a0\u00a0It is\u00a0very likely that they will\u00a0join the U.S. in China-bashing.\u00a0 They will also begin talking about a military that is not just for defense, but offense as well.\u00a0 This will be for the first time since the end of World War II.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 Japan has engaged in some China bashing.\u00a0 However, the earthquake in Japan has been its preoccupation.\u00a0 Yet, the government there has looked impotent and naive in its handling of the nation&#8217;s various problems.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: B<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Middle East<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Iran &#8211;\u00a0I\u00a0feel that they will begin to assert their dominance in Iraq&#8217;s politics.\u00a0 They will have internal divisions between the Ayatollahs and the Presidency, but the net effect will just be noise and stress.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 Iran has increased its meddling, not just in Iraq, but throughout the Middle East.\u00a0 Furthermore, there has been real crisis between the Ayatollahs and President Ahmadinejad.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: A<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Iraq &#8211; Will see an increase in violence.\u00a0\u00a0Iranian backed Shiites and Saudi backed Sunnis will vie for power to fill the vacuum left by a\u00a0reduced U.S. military presence.\u00a0 The Iranians are likely to win this one.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 Because the pull out of coalition troops won&#8217;t happen until August, it is too early to properly evaluate the above prediction.\u00a0 However, there have been increased suicide bombings in Iraq due to sectarian tensions.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: N\/A<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Saudi Arabia &#8211; Is currently going through a succession crisis.\u00a0 The question is will it become a less archaic state under new leadership?\u00a0 Because of the Iranian power surge, this will be a challenging year for the Kingdom.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 Reports are that the Saudis are, in fact, in crisis due to their succession crisis, but also the up-swelling in Iranian\/Shiite power.\u00a0 Furthermore, the news is rife with news of Saudi women refusing to adhere to the driving ban &#8211; a real challenge to their archaic culture.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: A<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Afghanistan &#8211; The U.S. and\u00a0NATO will try and broker a peace accord with the Taliban.\u00a0 Just how they will relate this story back to their publicks will be fascinating.\u00a0 But no\u00a0foregin power wants to be there any longer and strategically the nation is irrelevant.\u00a0 Look for the U.S. and Europe to ask Russia\u00a0for support\u00a0for any new Afghan coalition government.\u00a0 Unlike\u00a0Europe and the U.S., Russia actually has an interest in a more stable Afghanistan.\u00a0 Additionally, India and Pakistan are likely to jockey for influence in Afghanistan.\u00a0 So expect a courting by both sides to win\u00a0U.S. favor.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 Coalition forces have been dealing with Russia in an attempt to create a more stable Afghanistan going forward.\u00a0 As I described above, coalition forces have been negotiating with the Taliban.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: A<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Miscellaneous Issues<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Gold &#8211; Is very overvalued in my opinion.\u00a0\u00a0As the U.S. economy and U.S. consumer sentiment both improve markedly, expect a big sell off of gold.\u00a0 Gold&#8217;s initial run was due to an increase in demand from the growing wealthy populations of China and India who wanted luxury.\u00a0 Then\u00a0gold\u00a0became a safe-haven for investors who\u00a0retreated there in the event of\u00a0the onset of a Depression.\u00a0 Then speculators, seeing the big momentum in gold prices added their own capital.\u00a0 This will come to an end in 2011.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 This has yet to happen.\u00a0 Gold has experienced large sell offs in 2011, but then prices have recovered.\u00a0 However, I feel that gold still remains a gigantic asset bubble and feel that it will eventually pop.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: C<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Oil &#8211; Prices are likely to remain at their current\u00a0inflated, unjustifiable levels, due to continued speculation.\u00a0 Expect real price spikes\u00a0when the noise in the Middle East gets too loud\u00a0(i.e. Iraq&#8217;s sectarian battles and Saudi Arabia&#8217;s succession issues)\u00a0for markets to bear.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation: Well this prediction has been spot on.\u00a0 Though, I didn&#8217;t predict the political crises that have embroiled the Middle East this year.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: A<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>WILD CARDS<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Russia &#8211; Because of the U.S. obsession with the Middle East over the past decade, Russia has become resurgent.\u00a0 The government of Medvedev and Putin is calculating, cunning, courageous, and motivated to return Russia to the global stage before the U.S. frees its Middle Eastern resources.\u00a0 Russia is active in Germany, its periphery, Afghanistan, and Iran.\u00a0 In other words, in all of the hot spots.\u00a0 Russian choices will be a wild card for the world system.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 All of this has been true.\u00a0 However, I expected the Russians to be a bit more bucolic than they have been.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: B<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">China &#8211; The timing of the bursting of its economic bubble is difficult to assess.\u00a0 This is because the government there has demonstrated a willingness to use lying, manipulation, and authoritarianism to gloss over its problems.\u00a0 Yet, inevitably a day of economic reckoning will come in China.\u00a0 Just how severe its economic bubble bursting is, and its timing, is crucial.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 I have written extensively about this on the blog.\u00a0 All I will add now is: ditto.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: A<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">U.S. Congress &#8211; If the Democrats and Republicans find a way to work together then the net effect of the entire globe will be positive.\u00a0 But don&#8217;t count on this.\u00a0 Instead, look for partisan politics to get even more absurd.\u00a0 What the effects will be from this are very, very difficult to gauge.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Evaluation:\u00a0 Beat a dead horse and it doesn&#8217;t get deader.\u00a0 <strong>Grade: A<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Overall GPA: 3.04, <strong>B<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Jason<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today marks the end of the first half of 2011, so it is time to return to my 2011 Predictions to see how I have done so far this year.\u00a0 For ease in evaluation I will re-post each prediction in its entirety, followed by evaluation and commentary. OVERALL THEMES Cohesion &#8211; The economies of the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4457","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4457","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4457"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4457\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4457"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}