{"id":449,"date":"2010-07-02T10:55:00","date_gmt":"2010-07-02T14:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.intuitiveinvestor.com\/web\/?p=449"},"modified":"2018-08-18T17:43:04","modified_gmt":"2018-08-18T21:43:04","slug":"census-bureau-jobs-end-increase-in-the-jobless","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2010\/07\/02\/census-bureau-jobs-end-increase-in-the-jobless\/","title":{"rendered":"Census bureau jobs end = increase in the jobless"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the month of June the U.S. economy shed 125,000 workers.\u00a0 However, the U.S. government single-handedly<\/span> represented 225,000 of the lost jobs as the temporary jobs of the\u00a0U.S. census were shed.\u00a0 What that means is that net, the U.S. economy added 100,000 jobs.\u00a0 Expected jobs lost were 110,000.<\/span><\/p>\n

Analysis:<\/strong> Clearly the economic statistics of late are suggesting that the U.S. economy may experience a double-dip recession.\u00a0 My intuitive sense is that the lack of job creation, the Gulf of Mexico cluster cuss, the European debt crisis and the declines in the stock market are all spooking the U.S. consumer.\u00a0 At this point it feels as if our average fellow citizen is back into “hunker down, with one eyeball out of the fox hole” mode.\u00a0 Unfortunately, there is not much on the horizon that could correct the mood of the consumer.\u00a0 But there is one thing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Generally speaking, second quarter corporate profits ought to be higher and more robust.\u00a0 This is because until June the U.S. economy and the mood of the consumer was fairly upbeat.\u00a0 As profit reports come in and are likely fairly positive the stock markets ought to recover some of their lost ground.\u00a0 As silly as it is, most folks still look to the stock market as some sort of indicator of economic health.\u00a0 A rise in stock market levels may mitigate some of the fears of our fellow U.S. citizens.<\/span><\/p>\n

I have clearly been bullish on U.S. equities dating back to April and May.\u00a0 That bullishness was predicated on a lean and mean U.S. corporate machine; a “feeling-better-about-my-life” consumer; and a stabilizing U.S. financial system.\u00a0 I also felt that if Europe had an economic crisis it would lead to a capital infusion into the U.S. financial system – which it has.\u00a0 However, the flood of cash has gone into U.S. Treasuries.\u00a0 So what do I see going forward since my timing has clearly been off, despite seeing the potential risks to the system?<\/span><\/p>\n

The foundations for economic success are all in place.\u00a0 Corporations are still lean and mean; the U.S. banking system is still improving; Europe seems to have staved off its crisis; the U.S. economy is still adding new jobs; etc.\u00a0 What is missing is that ephemeral, yet critical,\u00a0thing called confidence.\u00a0 So let me put myself on the line here:<\/span><\/p>\n

I still feel that if you are a long-term investor (5-7 year time horizon) that buying U.S. equities here will result in excellent long-term returns.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Do I wish\u00a0I myself had held off buying until this moment?\u00a0 Yes.\u00a0 But am I worried that the cream of the crop of U.S. businesses are going to go bankrupt suddenly?\u00a0 Absolutely not.\u00a0 Valuations are very cheap right now so it’s an even more excellent time to buy U.S. equities.<\/span><\/p>\n

Importance grade:<\/strong> 8; the U.S. economy, sans the Census Bureau’s contribution, added 100,000 jobs last month.\u00a0 This is a good thing.\u00a0 Not only that, but the loss of the census jobs was anticipated.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jason<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the month of June the U.S. economy shed 125,000 workers.\u00a0 However, the U.S. government single-handedly represented 225,000 of the lost jobs as the temporary jobs of the\u00a0U.S. census were shed.\u00a0 What that means is that net, the U.S. economy added 100,000 jobs.\u00a0 Expected jobs lost were 110,000. Analysis: Clearly the economic statistics of late […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-449","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/449","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=449"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/449\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=449"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=449"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=449"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}