{"id":4505,"date":"2011-07-14T06:37:36","date_gmt":"2011-07-14T12:37:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=4505"},"modified":"2018-09-21T02:05:38","modified_gmt":"2018-09-21T06:05:38","slug":"overview-of-the-us-debt-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2011\/07\/14\/overview-of-the-us-debt-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Overview of the U.S. Debt Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Both Moody&#8217;s and Standard &amp; Poors stated yesterday that they are prepared to downgrade the United States&#8217; vaunted AAA credit rating if the country&#8217;s borrowing limit is not raised by Congress past its $14.29 trillion threshold.\u00a0 I consider the U.S. debt crisis to be a seminal moment for the country.\u00a0 Why?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Regardless of the outcome, <a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web2011\/05\/31\/what-my-intuition-tells-me-now-top-5-problems-facing-economy-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the United States is finally having a substantive conversation about its debt\/leverage culture<\/a>.\u00a0 Further, the two major political parties in the U.S., Republicans and Democrats, are finally having a substantive conversation about the irresponsibility of never balancing a budget, or having a budgetary surplus; and of a tax code that is insane.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Importantly, both political parties bear responsibility for this impending crisis.\u00a0 In a moment of national and international importance it simply does not serve the magnitude of the issue to point fingers at who is responsible for the current state of affairs &#8211; what matters is the future!\u00a0 I laud the Republicans for insisting that this discussion occur, but I also laud President Barack Obama for insisting that a discussion about how to increase U.S. revenues takes place, too.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">I agree with the following details of the current negotiations:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">A balanced budget amendment would be wonderful.\u00a0 What would be nice is that, if, in times of national crisis, the budget could temporarily be allowed to be out of balance.\u00a0 Crisis could be defined as times of war or severe recession (3+ quarters of declining gross domestic product (GDP)).<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">The budget can be balanced by operating two levers: increasing national revenue and decreasing spending.<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Revenues can be increased in many ways, not just by increasing marginal tax rates.\u00a0 How?\u00a0 Eliminating tax breaks and tax loopholes.\u00a0 For example, most U.S. corporations pay very little in taxes due to all of the incentives granted them by Congress.\u00a0\u00a0 Additionally, natural resource companies &#8211; like oil and natural gas firms &#8211; pay almost nothing in taxes.\u00a0 It is irresponsible to not try and increase revenues.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Spending can obviously be cut.\u00a0 The problem of course is that to give up the ability to direct government monies to your home district is tantamount to self-emasculation if you are a member of Congress.\u00a0 Also, if you dare to cut or change one of the sacred cows of the United States &#8211; like Social Security or Medicare &#8211; you risk political suicide.\u00a0 But you know what?\u00a0 Each member of Congress was gainfully employed before he\/she was elected to office.\u00a0 Why is it such a big deal that you might not get re-elected?\u00a0 Kind of an argument for term limits, isn&#8217;t it?<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Insisting on the entire tax code being revamped.\u00a0 The U.S. tax code is a complex morass.\u00a0 That I, a former portfolio manager of a mutual fund, cannot figure out my own taxes without aid is ridiculous.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Let&#8217;s look at the various possible outcomes of the debt ceiling negotiations:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Scenario 1: Debt ceiling is lifted with no changes to the U.S. budget.<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Outcome: The U.S. forestalls the critical, existential, self reflection about its debt\/leverage culture.\u00a0 Future generations bear the brunt of the unwinding of this lazy, irresponsible, spineless mode of living.\u00a0 Importantly, this scenario could be reached by both sides agreeing to raise the debt limit with &#8220;substantive talks&#8221; to occur at some point in the future &#8211; most likely after the 2012 election season.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Probability: 15% likelihood of happening<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Scenario 2: Debt ceiling is lifted with typical Congressional Quasimodo-Compromise changes to the U.S. budget.<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Outcome: The U.S. barely manages to dodge the crisis because both parties ultimately fear being blamed for the crisis when pensioners and veterans are not being paid.\u00a0 So token compromises are made between both parties that result in a more complex, more retarded public finance function and a more complex, more retarded tax code.\u00a0 Then the spin-doctoring begins in the run up to the 2012 U.S. election season.\u00a0 Nothing ultimately changes and the U.S. forestalls into the future its existential moment.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Probability: 65% likelihood<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Scenario 3: Debt ceiling is lifted with actual real and important changes, like the ones I outlined above<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Outcome: There is a lot of belly-aching and finger pointing by both parties.\u00a0 The American public doesn&#8217;t understand the import of the Congressional accord, but future generations of U.S. citizens (and the world) are grateful that there is at least one place on the planet where self-responsibility is the general tenor of a people.\u00a0 Economic stagnation ultimately lifts as the U.S. is no longer critically dependent on debt\/leverage to &#8220;grow&#8221; its economy.\u00a0 Instead, <a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web2009\/01\/17\/what-is-real-economic-growth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">real economic growth<\/a>, that is, innovation, transpires.\u00a0 This creates a much stronger economic base for the future of the planet.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Probability: 15% likelihood<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Scenario 4: Debt ceiling is not lifted and a default on U.S. debt occurs.<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Outcome: Hard to say with specificity because the U.S. would launch the world into wild, unchartered territory.\u00a0 Likely it would be a disaster for worldwide financial markets, perhaps tossing the world back into a recessionary funk.\u00a0 Or maybe nothing much would change at all. Largely, financial markets have ignored the U.S. debt crisis assuming that it will be resolved, or that it is irrelevant.\u00a0 Personally, I think this outcome would carry tremendous economic pain around the world and would likely result in the other three scenarios above coming to fruition in quick order.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Probability: 5% likelihood<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">In each of the above scenarios, a substantive, real discussion will have occurred regardless of actual outcome.\u00a0 I am putting all of my extra fulfillment powers on Scenario 3, above.\u00a0 Its time for the U.S. to exit its political and economic fetal position and reenter the world of an adult body politic.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Jason<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">P.S. &#8211; Hello to all of the new visitors to the blog.\u00a0 I strongly encourage you to explore the &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/webcategory\/the-blog\/best-of-the-blog\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Best of the Blog<\/a>&#8221; section to get oriented on the <a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/webthe-blog\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">What My Intuition Tells Me Now<\/a> blog.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Both Moody&#8217;s and Standard &amp; Poors stated yesterday that they are prepared to downgrade the United States&#8217; vaunted AAA credit rating if the country&#8217;s borrowing limit is not raised by Congress past its $14.29 trillion threshold.\u00a0 I consider the U.S. debt crisis to be a seminal moment for the country.\u00a0 Why? Regardless of the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4505","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4505"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4505\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4505"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4505"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4505"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}