{"id":4534,"date":"2011-07-22T03:16:36","date_gmt":"2011-07-22T09:16:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=4534"},"modified":"2018-09-21T02:05:36","modified_gmt":"2018-09-21T06:05:36","slug":"a-hardened-solution-to-greek-debt-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2011\/07\/22\/a-hardened-solution-to-greek-debt-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"A Hardened Solution to Greek Debt Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Late Thursday evening in Europe a hardened solution to the Greek debt crisis appears to have been worked out.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web2010\/03\/23\/the-eu-punts-greece-to-the-imf\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">This solution is likely to bring to a close over 18 months of procrastination on the part of European leaders<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Compromise won the day as the head of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, all gave in on entrenched positions to craft a tough solution.\u00a0 Merkel gave in and committed more of her country&#8217;s money to bailing out Greece.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web2011\/07\/04\/what-my-intuition-tells-me-now-greek-debt-risk-still-present\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sarkozy backed off on his plan to tax private banks to pay for a bailout, a plan that was understandably unpopular throughout Europe<\/a>.\u00a0 Lastly, Trichet backed off on his insistence that the Greek government could not be allowed to default on its debts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Analysis:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Here are the details&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">The total amount of the new Greek sovereign debt bailout deal is \u20ac109 billion ($157 billion).\u00a0 In combination, the euro zone and the International Monetary Fund can lend these monies to Greece over the next three years at an interest rate of around 3.5%.\u00a0 Additional monies may be lent to Greece from the private sector.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">The\u00a0\u20ac109 billion expands, by a wide margin, the already extant\u00a0\u20ac440 billion bailout fund created last year.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Additionally, the \u20ac440 check book can now be used to purchase euro denominated bonds in the open (i.e. secondary) market, rather than just being lent to countries on the brink of collapse.\u00a0 This flood of liquidity\/bids into the bond market will provide a floor on <a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web2011\/07\/16\/what-my-intuition-tells-me-now-european-debt-yields-indicate-fear\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the collapsing prices and rising yields of euro denominated bonds<\/a>.\u00a0 This feature will also discourage short sellers.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Colossally high interest rates on bailout funds have been lowered significantly and there is now the ability to issue loans with maturities of up to 30 years.\u00a0 This means that borrowers (read: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) have many years now to get their financial and gross domestic product (GDP) growth engine houses in order.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Greece&#8217;s private sector lenders must accept new debt in exchange for their old debt.\u00a0 The new debt is going to be at terms that are much less favorable than what the bondholders held before.\u00a0 Technically, this is a default on the outstanding debts.\u00a0 This is also a first in the euro zone: a member has broken the promise to repay money it borrowed.\u00a0 Ouch!\u00a0 Yet, this is a good ouch.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Other countries surviving on the largesse of their European neighbors can now renegotiate the interest rates on their borrowings.\u00a0 For example, Ireland has complained loudly about their high interest rate.\u00a0 Yet, France, which has always felt Ireland&#8217;s very low corporate tax rate was uncompetitive refused to grant a lower interest rate.\u00a0 France has now dropped its demand that Ireland raise its corporate taxes.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">What in this deal is important?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">First, that I can finally communicate details of a plan to my loyal readers is an indication European leaders finally are serious about solving this problem.\u00a0 Instead of a token gesture of support to Greece and then a promise to deal with the heavy issues at some point in the future, Europe finally got real.\u00a0 This is a very good sign.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">As I have written about, the economy of Greece is only about 2% of the European economy, so this crisis was much more about an existential question: Is the EU and its euro zone for real and can we trust it as investors?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Second, the deal shows that Europeans can compromise to save their own necks.\u00a0 Germany, in particular, had the most to lose.\u00a0 If the euro failed a reinstated Deutsche mark would rapidly appreciate relative to other European currencies.\u00a0 That would make German exports &#8211; its number one source of economic power &#8211; very expensive and likely crush the German economy, and to a degree well in excess of the cost of any bailout of Greece.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">The compromise also shows France and Germany working together on a European problem for the first time in years.\u00a0 Since Merkel came to power the Germans have been reasserting their right to an individual destiny separate from the EU&#8217;s creator, France.\u00a0 That these two nations have worked together means that <a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web2011\/03\/24\/what-my-intuition-tells-me-now-europe-is-a-continent-not-a-body-politic\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the EU is finally stronger today than it was yesterday<\/a>.\u00a0 In other words, it has demonstrated the ability to be a body politic when necessary.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Third, as I wrote about earlier <a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web2011\/07\/18\/what-my-intuition-tells-me-now-european-debt-crisis-youre-not-hearing-about\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">there may now be a separate, private banking crisis in Europe<\/a> if this deal leads to the Euro appreciating significantly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Fourth, essentially the solution to this problem is to print euros and then pump them into the economy.\u00a0 In other words, let&#8217;s use an inflationary policy to get rid of a problem created by too much (real estate) inflation.\u00a0 This &#8220;we cannot face the pain&#8221; solution cannot continue indefinitely; which brings me to&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Fifth, I like that Greek private sector investors are having to eat losses on their investments.\u00a0 Capitalism only works if there is not just the opportunity of return, but also the pain of loss.\u00a0 Without risk of loss people have no vested interest in doing their research and in insisting that the people they lend to are of a good credit quality.\u00a0 Duh!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Sixth, will the financial markets of the world finally take the Europeans seriously?\u00a0 If so, then the picture for the planetary economic recovery looks much brighter.\u00a0 This is especially true since the U.S. debt crisis looks to soon be resolved.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Removing <a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web2011\/06\/21\/what-my-intuition-tells-me-now-update-on-the-twin-debt-fears\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the twin debt crises<\/a> from the collective consciousness of the investment community leaves only two remaining problems.\u00a0 One, the U.S. unemployment situation; and two, the runaway Chinese inflation.\u00a0 In all likelihood this European debt deal, and an impending U.S. debt deal, will give a boost to financial markets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Now investors can put their attention on real investor-like things; things like: corporate profitability!\u00a0 Also, U.S. consumers, rightly or wrongly, think of the stock markets as a daily evaluation of the quality of the U.S. economy.\u00a0 If the financial markets go up then consumer confidence will go up.\u00a0 Then will follow consumer spending and strengthening economic foundations.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">But this is a lot of contingencies, so let&#8217;s not get ahead of ourselves and let&#8217;s just savor this moment.\u00a0 Now to the next problem: if Europeans, who have savaged each other in wars throughout millenia, can agree to a debt deal to bailout countries completely unrelated to themselves then why can&#8217;t the U.S. political parties agree to a single nation&#8217;s debt deal?\u00a0 Duh!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Importance grade:<\/strong> 9; enough said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Jason<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">[This post was edited for flow, and only for content in a very minor way.]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Late Thursday evening in Europe a hardened solution to the Greek debt crisis appears to have been worked out.\u00a0 This solution is likely to bring to a close over 18 months of procrastination on the part of European leaders. Compromise won the day as the head of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, German [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4534","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4534"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4534\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}