{"id":4556,"date":"2011-07-27T04:22:40","date_gmt":"2011-07-27T10:22:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=4556"},"modified":"2018-09-21T02:05:34","modified_gmt":"2018-09-21T06:05:34","slug":"do-tax-increases-negatively-affect-the-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2011\/07\/27\/do-tax-increases-negatively-affect-the-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Do Tax Increases Negatively Affect the Economy?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Continuing on with an examination of the U.S. debt crisis, let&#8217;s look at another oft talked about issue: that raising taxes leads to a decrease in gross domestic product (GDP).\u00a0 As I said yesterday, feel free to download the <a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/webwp-content\/uploads\/2011\/07\/US-Budgetary-Data.xlsx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">What My Intuition Tells Me Now U.S. Budgetary Data spreadsheet<\/a> to see my sources and calculations.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><em><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Does Raising Taxes Stifle Economic Growth?<\/strong><\/span><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">I cannot emphasize enough how very difficult a thing it is to use data to disprove or to verify whether raising taxes stifles economic growth.\u00a0 Why?\u00a0 Because there are many things that affect economic growth, not just the amount of taxes paid in an economy.\u00a0 Things like the economic cycle, the level of innovation, energy prices, war, budget deficits, interest rate levels, and other major events also strongly affect economic growth.\u00a0 So I am going to try and look at this issue from multiple directions to see if the collection of methods lends any insight.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline; font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Method 1: Average GDP Growth vs. Average Tax Growth<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">First, let&#8217;s look at a very basic comparison.\u00a0 Since 1934 U.S. GDP growth has averaged 7.6%, while tax growth as a % of GDP has averaged 2.0%.\u00a0 You would expect that if taxes negatively affected economic growth that GDP growth would not have been so much higher than tax growth.\u00a0 Instead, GDP grew 3.8x (= 7.6% \u00f7 2.0%) faster than taxes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline; font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Method 2: GDP Growth in the Years Following Tax Increases &amp; Decreases (A)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">A second method would be to look at gross domestic product growth in the years following either a tax hike or a tax cut to see what happens.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">After This Many Years\u00a0\u00a0\u2022\u00a0 Growth in GDP After Tax Increase\u00a0\u00a0\u2022\u00a0 Growth in GDP After Tax Decrease<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.0%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.9%<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.3%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.4%<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.4%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.0%<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.0%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.6%<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.8%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.1%<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Looking at the above data, it looks like raising taxes actually benefits the economy after the first and fifth years.\u00a0 Whereas, raising taxes hurts the economy in the second, third, and fourth years following a tax increase.\u00a0 What about the average for all of the above?\u00a0 The average increase in GDP following a tax increase from the above chart is 7.3%, whereas the average increase in GDP following a tax cut from the above chart is 7.4%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Frankly, a difference of 0.1% is hardly a difference at all, right?\u00a0 Here I have sucker punched the hard core budgetary Republicans out there.\u00a0 How?\u00a0 Because of that 0.1% difference I am certain that they are holding on to the notion that cutting taxes benefits the economy, even if it is only by 0.1%.\u00a0 But I strategically left off the effects of tax increases and decreases after year six.\u00a0 Let&#8217;s look at those results now.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">After This Many Years\u00a0\u00a0\u2022\u00a0 Growth in GDP After Tax Increase\u00a0\u00a0\u2022\u00a0 Growth in GDP After Tax Decrease<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.7%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.1%<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Now if you average the benefits attained by a tax increase or of a tax decrease you get tax increases benefiting the economy by 7.37% on average vs. a tax decrease benefiting the economy by 7.35% on average.\u00a0 Now I am certain that you will agree with me that a difference of only 0.02% is a dead on heat.\u00a0 It also highlights a couple of things.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">First, the number of years out from a tax increase or decrease is arbitrary.\u00a0 The Democrats could make a strong case for the economic benefits of a tax increase by quoting the figures after year one and year five.\u00a0 If they did they would look convincing.\u00a0 But Republicans could argue the same thing by pointing out the economic benefits of a tax decrease in year three, year two, or year four.\u00a0 Whatever.\u00a0 It&#8217;s clearly arbitrary.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Second, if anything, the above data massively suggests that the current U.S. budgetary bloodsport over a tax increase or decrease is all the more foolish.\u00a0 This is another way of saying that both Democrats and Republicans have an inflated sense of the importance of their policies since the economy grows about the same regardless of their tax policies.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">This is also a strong argument for either a flat tax or a balanced budget amendment.\u00a0 However, Congress has typically not voted for these policies because wielding the power to tax and spend is how Congressional members do wield their power.\u00a0 Thus, they are highly unlikely to ever surrender this power.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline; font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Method 3: GDP Growth in the Years Following Tax Increases &amp; Decreases (B)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">One possible objection to the above method is that by using taxes as a relative % of GDP, rather than taxes as an absolute burden relative to GDP, that the data might be skewed.\u00a0 That&#8217;s because income taxes, in particular, tend to rise and fall with GDP.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">So let&#8217;s look at GDP growth the year after an absolute increase in tax dollars collected:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">After This Many Years\u00a0\u00a0\u2022\u00a0 Growth in GDP After Tax Increase\u00a0\u00a0\u2022\u00a0 Growth in GDP After Tax Decrease<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.7%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.3%<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.2%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.9%<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.1%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.0%<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.1%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.4%<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.2%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.4%<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">6 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.9%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.9%<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">As you can see, a very similar pattern emerges as in the first data set.\u00a0 With this data series the average GDP growth after a tax increase is 7.37%.\u00a0 Conversely, GDP growth after a tax decrease is 7.30%.\u00a0 Again, this is basically a wash since the difference is just 0.07%.\u00a0 But if you want to quibble then you would have to say that it makes more sense to raise taxes if you want to increase GDP in the 5+ year period.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">I would not be confident presenting the case of raising taxes to anyone though.\u00a0 No, I think the strongest conclusion that can be made from these data is that tax policy really doesn&#8217;t affect GDP growth in the long run.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline; font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Method 4: R-Squared of GDP Growth Relative to Tax Growth<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">The next method I want to look at is the r-squared of gross domestic product relative to growth in taxes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">For those of you not familiar, r-squared is a statistical method and it is very easy to understand.\u00a0 R-squared measures the cause and effect relationship between variables and ranges from 0-100%.\u00a0 A score of 100% means that a change in one variable absolutely determines the change in the other variable.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Here we want to understand the effect on GDP growth of changing tax policy.\u00a0 Here the r-squared turns out to be 18.3%.\u00a0 That is changing tax policy can only explain 18.3% of the change in GDP.\u00a0 This is a very low percentage, and it suggests that tax policy has very little effect on economic output.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Furthermore, for you statisticians out there, the correlation coefficient of the relationship is weakly positive at 42.8%.\u00a0 What that means for everyone is that an increase in taxes tends to weakly, but positively effect gross domestic product.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline; font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">In conclusion, the notion that raising taxes squelches economic growth just is not borne out by the data.\u00a0 Economic growth is almost exactly the same regardless of whether taxes are raised or lowered.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Jason<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">[This post has been edited to correct a typo.]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Continuing on with an examination of the U.S. debt crisis, let&#8217;s look at another oft talked about issue: that raising taxes leads to a decrease in gross domestic product (GDP).\u00a0 As I said yesterday, feel free to download the What My Intuition Tells Me Now U.S. Budgetary Data spreadsheet to see my sources and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-best-of-the-blog","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4556","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4556"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4556\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}