{"id":4686,"date":"2011-09-02T08:11:24","date_gmt":"2011-09-02T14:11:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=4686"},"modified":"2018-09-21T02:04:42","modified_gmt":"2018-09-21T06:04:42","slug":"lack-of-growth-opportunities-remains-the-big-issue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2011\/09\/02\/lack-of-growth-opportunities-remains-the-big-issue\/","title":{"rendered":"Lack of Growth Opportunities Remains THE Big Issue"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Whew!\u00a0 My wife Dawn and I have made the cross country trek from Santa Fe, New Mexico to New York City and I begin my new responsibilities as a Content Director at the CFA Institute on Tuesday.\u00a0 And, more importantly, Verizon, sidelined by a workers strike, has finally installed super fast fiber optic Internet in our apartment.\u00a0 Fantastic!\u00a0 So back to the blog&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Today I wanted to focus on the biggest issue facing the U.S. economy.\u00a0 It&#8217;s not the unemployment rate and it&#8217;s not <a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web2011\/07\/28\/what-my-intuition-tells-me-now-who-is-more-responsible-for-the-u-s-debt\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the U.S. government debt crisis<\/a>.\u00a0 No, instead, it is the lack of innovative ideas.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">[By the way, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/2011-09-02\/pimco-s-gross-focus-on-growth-not-cutting-debt.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">I am finally being joined by a chorus of investors including PIMCO&#8217;s Bill Gross<\/a>.]<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">As <a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web2010\/12\/10\/its-chickens-that-sit-on-eggs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">I have been highlighting since the late autumn of 2010 U.S. companies are sitting on mountains of cash<\/a>.\u00a0 Seemingly these businesses are bereft of growth opportunities.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Ironically, the Federal government debt crisis led to a <em>decrease<\/em> in yields on U.S. debt as nervous investors bid up the price of those same, downgraded, bonds.\u00a0 It was reported that many of the buyers were corporate treasurers trying to earn yield on their cash positions.\u00a0 Yet, the buying from all investors was so great in some instances that the real interest rates actually went negative for a little while.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">What does it mean when real interest rates turn negative?\u00a0 First, real interest rates are simply nominal interest rates less the inflation rate.\u00a0 The idea is that, yes, you earn interest when you lend your money to someone.\u00a0 But that interest rate, at the very least, has to compensate you for the rise in inflation.\u00a0 If not, then effectively you are paying for the privilege of having <em>your<\/em> money borrowed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">So could there be any greater evidence that U.S. businesses are running out of innovative ideas than when they actually pay the Federal government for the privilege of borrowing corporate money?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">To recount what has been enumerated many times, U.S. businesses could:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Invest their mountainous cash balances in innovative projects to help grow their revenues or to save themselves expenses &#8211; but they aren&#8217;t<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Hire new employees to relieve the strain on an overall workforce whose productivity is slipping (perhaps due to being over worked for the last 2+ years) &#8211; but they aren&#8217;t<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Buy back shares of their own stock on the open market, thus increasing the returns to the remaining shareholders &#8211; but they aren&#8217;t<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Pay dividends to their shareholders and let shareholders figure out where they can earn a return higher than less than zero &#8211; but they aren&#8217;t<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Unfortunately, the above list is not receiving attention from the business press.\u00a0 Instead, the stock market declines and the possibility of recession brought on by the U.S. government debt crisis has been the focus for the last three weeks.\u00a0 But the debt crisis is not THE issue.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">After all, hypothetically, if the economy were growing at 50% + each year the U.S. government would have massively increased tax revenues.\u00a0 Those dollars could then be used to pay down the debt.\u00a0 Duh!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">As an investor, which we all are, we have to ask ourselves one simple question at all times: in what investment can I earn the highest risk-adjusted return right now?\u00a0 Right now, investing in U.S. publicly traded businesses looks to be a low risk-adjusted return.\u00a0 After all, if you give them your money, they are taking it and investing it in bank deposits that are, in some cases, earning negative rates of return.\u00a0 Ouch!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Obviating against this is that most U.S. companies are trading at remarkably low prices right now as measured by price to earnings (P\/E) ratios.\u00a0 As an investor I would place my attention on the following, in order:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Looking at my personal financial situation, am I paying someone an interest rate right now?\u00a0 If so, use your investment dollars to pay down your debts in order of interest rate.\u00a0 Paying off a credit card at an 18% interest rate is a quick way to earn 18% rate of return on your money.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">If I have no debt &#8211; my recommendation in all situations excepting house, car and education &#8211; then I would look to invest in myself.\u00a0 Is there a skill set that I need to have to make myself a competitive in the job market?\u00a0 Is there a way of making myself more productive by increasing my ability to tap my right brain&#8217;s creative and intuitive powers (hint: what investment will help me relax and rejuvenate?)?<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">If I feel that I have invested in myself then I look at all of the other investment possibilities:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Local real estate whose value might be increasing faster than a savings account<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">National real estate whose value might be increasing faster than a savings account<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Local businesses that need my capital to be launched to improve my community<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">National businesses that need my capital to be launched to improve my country<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">International businesses that need my capital to improve my world<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Right now I am personally looking at U.S. businesses that continue to invest in their future growth and looking at ways of investing in less liquid investments, like real estate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Sorry that it has been so long since my last post, please forgive me.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Jason<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Whew!\u00a0 My wife Dawn and I have made the cross country trek from Santa Fe, New Mexico to New York City and I begin my new responsibilities as a Content Director at the CFA Institute on Tuesday.\u00a0 And, more importantly, Verizon, sidelined by a workers strike, has finally installed super fast fiber optic Internet [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4686","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4686","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4686"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4686\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4686"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4686"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4686"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}