Mixed messages
Posted by Jason Apollo Voss on Aug 10, 2009 in Best of the Blog, Blog | 2 commentsI have been reading the business and economic news with interest over the last several weeks. Increasingly there are a lot of stories that contradict one another in the same newspaper and on the same day. This reporting regards the state of the economy and usually centers on a quote from several prominent market prognosticators. In other words, the news stories are not factually based, but opinion based. The opinion leaders are using facts to justify their opinions, but the nature of the stories is subjective.
This is very interesting. Why? This is a strong indication that the recession is at the bottom and that economic growth will soon be occurring. The reason I say this is because popular opinion being mixed is a reflection of a mixed economy. However, the one thing strongly favoring that we are in the midst of a recovery, rather than another calm before recessionary storm, is that no one in the country (or in the world really) is working toward a recession. Every last one of us wants to see the recession end.
I encourage each of you to monitor the news that hits the press in the next several weeks. Monitor the tenor and tone and I think you will agree with me. If you disagree, then please post a comment to ze blog.
Be well!
Jason
Do you think we're getting to much opinion in the news recently, or is some type of commentary appropriate for the situation?
For another thought: surely WANTING the recession to end isn't nearly sufficient to make it so? We had a sucker's rally for 3 months over the winter too. Shouldn't the economy putter along at this semi-stalled state for a while as people pull themselves out of debt (and their heads out of their rears) before (ideally) the economy starts growing at a more modest pace?
Hard to answer that question in the context of "the news recently." I think there is too much commentary, in general. News editors of media outlets generally have people on who reflect the strain of the status quo. The status quo currently has been that we are in a recession. That's why mixed messages is a sign that we are nearing the bottom – if we haven't already emerged.
I agree with what you said about "WANTING." However, the bias in terms of action is to end the recession not prolong it. That means that when the news turns mixed the probability that the "naysayers" are right becomes slimmer by the day.
I disagree slightly with what you said about, "Shouldn't the economy putter along…for a while" statement. I only disagree because time is not the scale to weigh the recovery on. The appropriate scale is whether or not real substantive change has occurred; and whether or not real substantive growth is occurring, regardless of "when" it happens. Does that make sense?
Nate – you're the best – thanks for the comments. As I look at the usage stats for the blog I see many hits, but few comments – so thank you for them. Have you told your friends about the blog?
With smiles!
Jason