An increasingly violent edge in Egypt

Over the weekend I provided a purely intuitive assessment of what was going on in Egypt.  I also said that the situation is in flux because the various participants all have free-will and get to choose how to respond.  So here is an update on my evolving intuitive assessment.

Right now in Egypt there is a violent edge developing.  To me it feels as if this is primarily driven by a building frustration in all Egyptians that, despite their herculean efforts, they have been unable to accomplish their primary goal: unseating Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak.  The frustration is leading to a fracturing of the opposition forces.  In turn that fracturing is leading to a mob of people rocketing toward a more visceral, violent response to unfolding events.

In fact, this afternoon in Cairo there are clashes being reported between Mubarak supporters/instigators and peaceful protesters.  Beware of the archetypes, though!  It would be easy to imagine a bad guy:good guy scenario here.  That is dangerous thinking.  What is more important is to tune into the composite energy of the entire country.  Unfortunately, the feeling is one of building tension.

At this point the tension feels to me as if it can only be resolved if Mubarak is forced out of office almost immediately.  This job can only be facilitated by the military of Egypt.  So my original belief that Mubarak would be forced out by the military looks increasingly likely.  What feels less likely is peaceful post-Mubarak moments.  I don’t feel that a countrywide, revolutionary meltdown is what will happen.  But it feels like there will be pockets of violent upsurge throughout Egypt in the next 2 to 3 weeks.

Still, I think the implications of the Egyptian revolution will be similar to what I described, also this weekend.

I will continue to monitor this situation very closely.

Jason