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An improvement in jobless claims
The United States Department of Labor announced this morning that its weekly jobless claims data has improved. Specifically the data show that the number of people filing for new unemployment benefits fell by 36,000 last week to a level of 383,000. Because this data is notoriously volatile, and is also estimated (which you can tell because the numbers are round), a four-week moving average is calculated to smooth the gyrations of the jobless claims. That number, a much more important figure, shows a drop of 16,000 new claims to a...
read moreData affirms that houses are affordable
Moody’s Analytics announced data this morning that indicates that homes in the United States are the most affordable they have been since before the massive real estate bubble. Specifically, the data compare median home prices to median household income. Clearly the lower the ratio the better. In September the ratio hit a level of 1.6 as compared to the height of the bubble in late 2005 when the ratio was 2.3. That figure of 1.6 compares to an average ratio of 1.9 for the span of years for which the data have been gathered....
read moreObama laying the groundwork for 2012 elections?
Yesterday President Barack Obama spoke before the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. His speech was similar to a point I made several months ago when I called upon business leaders in the United States to start spending some of their hoarded $2 trillion in cash to hire new employees and to invest in the country. Obama said, “Ask yourselves what you can do for America. Ask yourselves what you can do to hire American workers, to support the American economy, and to invest in this nation.” From my perspective it looks as if...
read moreA proactive China is a good thing
Early this morning the Chinese central bank announced that it was going to raise its benchmark interest rates for deposits and lending by another 0.25%. Specifically, the benchmark rates are: 5.81-6.06% for lending and 2.75-3.00% for deposits. This is the third increase since October 19. Analysis: I have spoken often about the overheating of the Chinese economy and the need for a Chinese government intervention in order to cool off the economy to protect gains they have made in gross domestic product (GDP). I have also talked about...
read moreIn Egypt Obama’s Between a Rock and a Hard Place
There has been nearly unanimous criticism of U.S. President Barack Obama’s handling of the revolution in Egypt. However, I think a real reckoning of the situation reveals that the situation is enormously complex and any action requires careful consideration. Therefore, I would like to point out the various complexities, not to defend Barack Obama, but to highlight what the real issues at stake are in Egypt as a concerned observer and as an investor. First, before engaging in the full discussion, let’s talk about why...
read moreThe fractures in the EU are showing more
This past week various leaders of the European Union have been meeting to create a structure for preventing future economic crises. Also important was their effort to try and create a framework for how to deal with crises when they do unfold. Most of us who were watching the proceedings of this meeting in Brussels were looking for an explicit, crystallized, concrete action plan for how to bolster the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Instead, in typical EU fashion, we get a press release indicating that the EU countries...
read more5 February 2011: Jason Apollo Voss is now a Forbes Contributor
5 February, 2011 Good news! As of 6:39pm MST this evening I am a Forbes Contributor! What that means is that you will begin seeing my name more frequently on the Internet and in your searches. Forbes content is syndicated and appears all over the world. I am very happy, satisfied and thankful to be a part of Forbes Media. There will be more news to come and as soon as my Contributor bio is up on the Forbes site I will hotlink it for you to follow. Additionally, as my investment views go live on the Forbes site I will...
read moreYou can’t take the human out of quant models
Clearly you don’t write a blog entitled “What My Intuition Tells Me Now” and rely solely on quantitative methods. As the retired co-portfolio manager of the Davis Appreciation and Income fund I learned very early in my career that facts would only take you so far in your investment process. The problem is that facts, the thing that most investors spend their time analyzing, have all occurred in the past. But investment returns unfold in the future. Hmmm. What to make then of investors who rely upon so-called quant...
read moreUnemployment data for January
This morning the January unemployment data was released by the Department of Labor. I am guessing that most pundits are going to focus on the low number of net jobs added by all of the various economic sectors. Specifically, total non-farm payrolls increased by 36,000 last month. This compares to an expectation of 136,000 new jobs added by a consensus of economists. The overall unemployment rate fell to 9.0%, whereas it was expected the unemployment rate would fall to 9.5%. Analysis: It would be difficult to spin this data...
read moreStructural issues at the underfunded SEC
The New York Times is reporting this morning that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC) has caught the attention of the Government Accounting Office each of the last seven years for faulty financial reporting. This report happens at a time when the SEC is seeking to substantially increase its budget and petitioning Congress to do so. From the outside this looks very ironic at first glance. After all, the SEC is charged with examining the accurate financial reporting of U.S. publicly traded businesses, yet its own...
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