I strive to be smart, wise, analytical, creative, intuitive, and informative. I hope to help make you a better active investment management pro.
I recommend you start with the Best of the Blog.
Commodities Trading Rules Are Flawed
Warning: this is another criticism of capitalism piece. Commodities, especially oil and gold, have been soaring in price since the unfolding of Middle East crisis. For me it is just the latest example of how commodities market trading rules are flawed. Greatest among the errors is that commodities traders never need to take possession of the goods that they are trading. Because commodities traders can open a long position – that is take out a contract to buy a commodity like oil – but do not have to ever take...
read moreUnemployment Data for February Are Better
This morning the unemployment rate for February was announced by the Department of Labor. The data show that the U.S. economy added 192,000 jobs in February and that the overall unemployment rate dropped below 9.0% for the first time in almost two years. Consensus forecasts had the economy adding 196,000 jobs. Analysis: This result is clearly a very big positive for the U.S. economy. I especially like that economist estimates of jobs growth are finally starting to closely track reality. This is a very strong sign of a stabilizing,...
read moreAdvertising Sales Up Is a Sign of Good Things to Come
This morning one of the largest advertising firms in the world, WPP PLC, announced its full year 2010 results. First, profits rose 34% last year. While this sounds impressive, remember that exiting a recession many companies experience tremendous operating leverage. Because most businesses have trimmed their expense structures to the bone, any revenue growth has an out sized effect on profits. That is, incremental revenue dollars have less expense dollars offset against them, so more money falls to the bottom line. I said in my 2011...
read moreLowest initial jobless claims in three years!
This morning the Department of Labor announced its weekly initial jobless claims were at their lowest level since 2008. Specifically, they fell by 20,000 claims to a level of 368,000. This figure compares to expectations from economists of a rise in jobless claims to 395,000. Long-term readers of the blog know that I prefer to look at the four-week moving average for jobless claims because it smooths this very volatile data series. The four-week moving average fell to 388,500 from 401,250, a week earlier. This is a decline of...
read more1 March 2011: ForeWord Reviews Likes The Intuitive Investor
Web-based book review resource, “ForeWord Reviews – Good Books Independently Published” has given a very positive review of The Intuitive Investor: A Radical Guide for Manifesting Wealth. Highlights of the review include: “Some sections of the book are nothing if not provocative.” “The Intuitive Investor is engaging and comprehensive in its study of how intuition can play a defining role in determining investment strategies. Interestingly, this book should offer a reader much of value...
read moreDangerous Wall Street Practices Still Possessed of Life
In the initial moments of this blog I stated that there were three things that needed to change in order for the world to definitively leave recession behind: The people that led us into recession had to change. The institutions that led us into recession had to change. The ideas that led us into recession had to change. While there has been tremendous loss of wealth, many of the people that led us into the Great Recession still remain. In turn, that means that their ideas are still in place. One very deadly idea that still...
read moreConsumer Confidence at a Three Year High
Yesterday morning Thomson/Reuters and the University of Michigan reported the results of their U.S. consumer confidence survey. Here are the results: The level of 77.5 marks the highest level attained in consumer confidence in three years. Economists expectations were exceeded by 3.2 points, or around 5% For the first time in six years consumers said that they were hearing more positive economic news than negative Analysis: This is very good news. Consumer spending makes up around 70% of the total U.S. gross domestic product...
read moreWhat Does It Mean When a Stock is Fairly Valued?
One of the most misunderstood of all investment issues is what it means when shares of stock in a business are fairly valued. When investors hear that a stock is fairly valued they inevitably treat that stock as if it is over valued – avoiding a purchase in that business. However, that is not what the term fairly valued means. To understand the issue a brief overview of stock valuation is necessary. The primary driver of value in a business is growth in the earnings/profit stream of a business. Sans growth in profits...
read moreObstacles to Accessing Your Intuition, Part Two
This is part two of a two part series about the principle obstacles standing in the way of you accessing your intuition. Obstacles to Accessing Your Intuition, part one was published one week ago today. Combined, these two posts should become a part of your investor’s toolkit. If you are looking for a manual for how to access your intuition as applied to investment results I encourage you to purchase a copy of my book, The Intuitive Investor: A Radical Guide for Manifesting Wealth. Anxiety is not the same thing as fear The...
read moreNo Investment News to Write About and What It Means
As a blog writer I try and provide you with essential, actionable content on a daily basis. Yet, other than the uprisings cascading through the Middle East, I don’t really feel as if there is much to write about or to pass on to you. What does it mean that there is no investment news to write about? I started the blog on October 6, 2008 in the midst of an extremely volatile financial meltdown, one that promised to be very, very rough. Frankly, there has been something of import to write about nearly continuously during this...
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