I strive to be smart, wise, analytical, creative, intuitive, and informative. I hope to help make you a better active investment management pro.
I recommend you start with the Best of the Blog.
Initial Estimate of Japanese Quake Toll
This morning the Japanese government announced its initial estimate of the toll of the earthquake that struck almost two weeks ago. At this point the maximum damage estimate is put at $309 billion (¥25 trillion). Analysis: Per person in Japan the above estimate is $2,422, using their population of 127,560,000 in 2009 (source: www.google.com/publicdata). Japan had total gross domestic product (GDP) of $5.07 trillion in 2009 (source: same as above), which works out to $39,746 GDP per capita. So the earthquake’s costs are...
read moreEvidence of Social Strain in China
Yesterday the Chinese government in Beijing banned outdoor advertising (like billboards) that promotes, “hedonism, lavishness and the worship of foreign things.” The ban also prevents ads that are considered vulgar and that encourage an aristocratic lifestyle. While on the surface this law appears to be about the wealthy, it is not. Instead this law is about the widening gap between the rich and poor in China. This is an issue that I highlighted in my 2011 Predictions when I said, “The Chinese are on the brink of two ugly...
read moreTwo Year Anniversary of Market Low Call
Two years ago on March 12, 2009 I publicly called the March 9, 2009 U.S. financial market low. I have wanted to update the performance of the financial markets over that two year period. However, with the crises of the Middle East and Japan running rampant it seemed crass to publish such a post. In that post, entitled “Bottomed Out?,” I said: “So does this rally indicate that we have reached a bottom?…If you have courage as I do that we are at or very near the bottom then you can do as I am doing: buy...
read moreYemen is Nearing Civil War
Yemen’s conflict has largely fallen along the Muslim sectarian divide between Sunni and Shiite. The forces, mostly armed police, loyal to President Ali Abdullah Saleh have clashed with the citizenry of Yemen all while the forces of the army looked on. However, in the last day as Brigadier General Ali Moshen Al- Ahmar of the Yemeni army announced that he has joined the revolution on the side of the protesters. This is somewhat similar to what unfolded in Egypt in February. The general happens to be President Saleh’s...
read moreAn Important Anecdotal Sign of Crises Ends
As an investor, how do you know when a crisis is nearing an end? When the trajectory of news stories switches from reporting and reacting to every new piece of information into reflection and review of the beginnings and causes of the crisis. Take for example the Japanese nuclear crisis that has been the central focus of the First World’s attention for the past week. Yesterday morning the Wall Street Journal carried a story about the crisis entitled, “Reactor Fight Was Delayed,” in which details of the initial...
read morePress Releases Masquerading as News
The past several months have been such an intense time to be a world citizen and investor that I thought I would share with you something much lighter today. Something light, but that eats at me like a slow reacting acid. Namely, the increase in press releases, and much more often, product releases, masquerading as “news.” I have long decried this trend of poor journalism as a dilution of the quality of information. Sadly, it is that information that is the raw material of investment decision making. Ugh! One of the...
read moreJapanese Intuitive Assessment Update
On 13 March, 2011 I published an Intuitive Assessment of Japanese Disaster. An update to that assessment is necessary because the events taking place there are in movement. WHAT I GOT RIGHT I initially sensed a growing sense of disorder. I am happy to report that my feeling is that folks in Japan are coalescing in a more unified way. The palpable sense of disarray, disorder and increasing chaos has now stabilized. Plans are finally being put in place to recover from the disaster. Initially I reported that the military and...
read moreWeekly Jobless Claims Improve
This morning the U.S. Department of Labor released its weekly jobless claims number. Data showed an improvement in the figure to the tune of 16,000 – meaning that fewer people filed for unemployment last week than the week prior. In total, initial jobless claims were 385,000 last week. These numbers are usually very volatile so I prefer to look at a four week moving average in order to smooth the data. That number fell by 7,000 to an overall level of 386,250. Analysis: Today’s jobless claims number is additional...
read moreHousing Starts Near Bottom
This morning the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that housing starts in the United States were at their lowest level since April 2009. Data show that in February starts fell 22.5% to an annualized rate of 479,000. “Housing starts” mean a new home that has begun to be constructed. Analysis: I have talked at length on the blog about the very poor supply and demand situation facing the housing market. For housing starts to have hit their lowest level in almost two years is a positive sign. How’s that? In order...
read moreSaudi Arabian Forces Move Into Bahrain
In order to quell additional Shiite uprisings in Eastern Arabia, the Saudis have moved military forces into Bahrain. This is significant because it has been believed that Iran was taking advantage of the “calls for Democracy” to instigate a Shiite revolution against the Sunni leadership of Bahrain. Bahrain, though very small, sits next to one of the largest oil fields in the world, occupies one of the largest oil export points, and houses large numbers of U.S. naval forces. Iran was trying to covertly surround its hated...
read more
